Search for: All records

Abstract Lake-effect precipitation is convective precipitation produced by relatively cold air passing over large and relatively warm bodies of water. This phenomenon most often occurs in North America over the southern and eastern shores of the Great Lakes, where high annual snowfalls and high-impact snowstorms frequently occur under prevailing west and northwest flow. Locally higher snow or rainfall amounts also occur due to lake-enhanced synoptic precipitation when conditionally unstable or neutrally stratified air is present in the lower troposphere. While likely less common, lake-effect and lake-enhanced precipitation can also occur with easterly winds, impacting the western shores of the Great Lakes. This study describes a 15-year climatology of easterly lake-effect (ELEfP) and lake-enhanced (ELEnP) precipitation (conjointly Easterly Lake Collective Precipitation: ELCP) events that developed in east-to-east-northeasterly flow over western Lake Superior from 2003 to 2018. ELCP occurs infrequently but often enough to have a notable climatological impact over western Lake Superior with an average of 14.6 events per year. The morphology favors both single shore-parallel ELEfP bands due to the convex western shoreline of Lake Superior and mixed-type banding due to ELEnP events occurring in association with “overrunning” synoptic-scale precipitation. ELEfP often occurs in association with a surface anticyclone to the north of Lake Superior. ELEnP typically features a similar northerly-displaced anticyclone and a surface cyclone located over the U.S. Upper Midwest that favor easterly boundary-layer winds over western Lake Superior. 

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a frequently studied phenomenon along the West Coast of the United States, where they are typically associated with the heaviest local flooding events and almost one-half of the annual precipitation totals. By contrast, ARs in the northeastern United States have received considerably less attention. The purpose of this study is to utilize a unique visual inspection methodology to create a 30-yr (1988–2017) climatology of ARs in the northeastern United States. Consistent with its formal definition, ARs are defined as corridors with integrated vapor transport (IVT) values greater than 250 kg m −1 s −1 over an area at least 2000 km long but less than 1000 km wide in association with an extratropical cyclone. Using MERRA2 reanalysis data, this AR definition is used to determine the frequency, duration, and spatial distribution of ARs across the northeastern United States. Approximately 100 ARs occur in the northeastern United States per year, with these ARs being quasi-uniformly distributed throughout the year. On average, northeastern U.S. ARs have a peak IVT magnitude between 750 and 999 kg m −1 s −1 , last less than 48 h, and arrive in the region from the west to southwest. Average AR durations are longer in summer and shorter in winter. Further, ARs are typically associated with lower IVT in winter and higher IVT in summer. Spatially, ARs more frequently occur over the Atlantic Ocean coastline and adjacent Gulf Stream waters; however, the frequency with which large IVT values are associated with ARs is highest over interior New England. 

Abstract The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) held seven targeted observing periods (TOPs) during the 2022 austral winter to enhance atmospheric predictability over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The TOPs of 5–10-day duration each featured the release of additional radiosonde balloons, more than doubling the routine sounding program at the 24 participating stations run by 14 nations, together with process-oriented observations at selected sites. These extra sounding data are evaluated for their impact on forecast skill via data denial experiments with the goal of refining the observing system to improve numerical weather prediction for winter conditions. Extensive observations focusing on clouds and precipitation primarily during atmospheric river (AR) events are being applied to refine model microphysical parameterizations for the ubiquitous mixed-phase clouds that frequently impact coastal Antarctica. Process studies are being facilitated by high-time-resolution series of observations and forecast model output via the YOPP Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (YOPPsiteMIIP). Parallel investigations are broadening the scope and impact of the YOPP-SH winter TOPs. Studies of the Antarctic tourist industry’s use of weather services show the scope for much greater awareness of the availability of forecast products and the skill they exhibit. The Sea Ice Prediction Network South (SIPN South) analysis of predictions of the sea ice growth period reveals that the forecast skill is superior to the sea ice retreat phase.